群体性事件“倒U型”假说:经验与检验

Inverted-U Hypothesis on Mass Incidents:An Empirical Test

随着改革开放的深入发展,社会发展过程中积累的各种矛盾和冲突开始不断迸发,我国群体性事件的数量也呈现递增的趋势。文章的通过对群体性事件和人均GDP的验证分析表明:1.前我国群体性事件与经济发展水平之间的变动关系呈现出先升后降的"倒U型"曲线关系;2.支农、惠农政策对减少群体性事件的数量起到一定的积极作用;3.收入分配不公是群体性事件的重要影响因素;4.城市成为了群体性事件爆发的主要阵地。相应地,政府应该致力于克服GDP内部的两极分化,即收入分配和再分配政策和改革要向合理化和公平化方向发展,尽量缩小城乡收入差距和贫富差距,并继续大力推动农村的支农和惠农政策。

Along with the in-depth development of open-up reform,all kinds of accumulated contradiction and conflicts started to break out,and the number of mass incidents is increasing.Through the analysis of mass incidents and GDP per capita,this paper finds that： 1） there is an inverted-U curve correlation between mass incidents and economic development,i.e.the mass incidents increase first and then descend;2） agricultural supported and friendly policies play a role in reducing the occurrence of mass incidents;3） the inequity of income distribution has an important impact on mass incidents;4） urban areas become the main battle fields of mass incidents.Accordingly,the government shall prevent the polarization of GDP,i.e.the policies and reform on income distribution and redistribution should be rationalized and equitable,to narrow the income gaps between the urban and rural areas and the rich and the poor.And the agricultural supported and friendly policies should be carried on continuously.