基于系统动力学的成都市商品住宅市场系统仿真研究

Based on System Dynamics to Simulate Commercial Housing Market in Chengdu

近几年,随着西部经济的快速发展,成都市商品住宅市场规模逐年扩大,商品房品质逐步提升,但在高速发展的同时,也伴随着房价逐步走高、商品房投资额增幅加大、市场内部结构不合理等现象。基于住宅市场的一般发展规律,分析了住宅市场的影响因素,在系统动力学理论基础上建立了成都市商品住宅市场的系统动力学模型,并对模型进行计算机仿真实验,从而对成都市商品住宅市场的发展趋势进行预测,为成都市政府制定相应的商品房政策提供了理论依据。

In recent years,the scale of commercial housing market in Chengdu is constantly expanding and the quality of commercial houses is constantly rising along with the fast development of western economy.Meanwhile,there are some unreasonable phenomenon,such as fast rising housing prices,large increasing range of housing investment and unreasonable market structure.This paper analyses the general law and influence factors of housing market,and builds a housing market model on the basis of system dynamics theory.This paper also forecasts the developmental trend of commercial housing market in Chengdu by simulating the model in computer.The conclusion provides theory evidence to commercial housing policy and has some practical value.