边疆民族省份区域系统协调时空格局及发展机制——以云南省为例

RESEARCH ON SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERN AND DEVELOPING MECHANISM FOR COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL SYSTEM OF THE BORDER PROVINCES INHABITED BY ETHIC MINORITIES:A CASE STUDY OF YUNNAN PROVINCE

以云南省为例,研究边疆少数民族省份区域系统协调发展演化特点。用熵值法分析1994—2008年间的时间序列、不同地域尺度的区域系统协调发展状况,得出云南省区域系统整体处于环境制约型,但处于不同发展阶段的市州其主要制约因素存在差异,区域发展总体遵循从经济制约型向资源、环境制约型转变,通过时、空角度分析发现云南省区域经济发展水平与系统协调度的关系存在一定程度的背离。应用基于VAR模型的格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数剖析了云南省区域系统发展的驱动机制;并据此提出一些建议。

Taking Yunnan as a case study,the paper research on evolutionary qualities of coordinated development of regional system of the border provinces inhabited by ethic minorities.It turns out that regional system of Yunnan is underconditions of environment restraint as a whole by the use of entropy method to analyze development status quo of regional coordination from the period 1994 to 2008 and from different regional scales.It is differential that the main restrict factors on different economic stage which is shifted from economic restraint to restraint of resources and environment at largely.The relations between economic development and coordination degrees of regional system by aspect of time series analysis are deviated to some extent from by regional aspect.Some advice is given on the base of the above study and deep analyses of driving mechanism of regional system development of Yunnan Province by the means of Granger causality and impulse response function on the model of VAR.