全球气候变暖背景下农业干旱灾害与粮食安全——基于西南五省面板数据的实证研究

AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT DISASTER AND FOOD SECURITY UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF GLOBAL WARMING——BASED ON PANEL DATA OF FIVE PROVINCES OF SOUTHWEST CHINA

干旱灾害是我国农业生产的最大风险,严重影响农产品生产供给与粮食安全。通过构建农业干旱灾害与粮食安全之间的计量模型,利用西南五省样本数据,实证检验了1997—2008年间农业干旱灾害对粮食安全的影响。结果表明,农业干旱灾害对粮食安全具有明显的影响。由此提出应对全球气候变暖下农业干旱灾害风险的策略:加强农田水利基础设施建设,通过增强水资源的时空调配能力达到农业抵御干旱灾害风险;选育耐旱作物品种,提高作物干旱忍耐力;调整粮食生产布局,在高旱灾频率地区,减少高耗水作物生产等。

The drought disaster is the biggest risk of China＇s agricultural production,and it seriously affects the supply of agricultural products and food security.Through building econometrics model between agricultural drought and food security,and using the sample data of five provinces of southwest China,this paper empirically examines the effect of agriculture drought on food security from 1997 to 2008.The results show that the agriculture drought has significant effect on food security.Thus this paper puts forward the agricultural drought disaster risk strategy under the background of global warming： strengthening the infrastructure construction of farmland water conservancy works,reaching an aim to withstand agriculture drought risk through enhancing time and space allocation capacity of water resources;breeding drought-resistant crop varieties,improving crop drought endurance;adjusting grain production distribution,reducing the crops production on high water consumption in areas with high drought frequency.