基于异速增长模型的土地利用变化驱动因子分析——以湘潭市为例

The Driving Factors Analysis of Land-use Change Based on the Allometric Growth Model in Xiangtan City

为探求人类的生产和经济活动与自然生态系统相互协调,并可持续发展的基点,本研究试从湘潭市土地利用变化过程中探寻湘潭市"两型社会"("资源节约型"和"环境友好型"社会)建设的基点。利用相关因子分析和情景分析方法,以异速增长模型为理论依据,研究湘潭市1999-2008年土地利用变化驱动因子间的关系,并检验湘潭市土地利用变化过程中土地资源系统的稳定性。研究表明:(1)1999-2008年10 a间湘潭市人口变化和耕地变化呈负异速增长。人口规模扩大时,耕地面积会微弱增加,但人均耕地面积会减少。若人口数量增长1%,则耕地面积增加0.101倍,人均耕地面积减少0.000 1倍;(2)湘潭市GDP与耕地和城镇住宅土地面积彼此间不存在异速增长现象。虽然其相关系数r≥︱0.806**︱,但只能虚弱反映GDP会影响耕地和城镇住宅土地面积的变化。(3)异速增长模型用于详细描述湘潭市GDP和耕地与城镇住宅土地面积相互关系时,表现出"三个不适应",表明土地资源系统结构功能还不完善,系统不稳定,土地资源的集约利用度不高。

To be explored a sustainable development base-spot,which makes production and economic actives of human being coordination with natural ecosystems,it tries to find the base-spot of Xiangtan city＇s ＇Two-type society＇（Resource saving and Environment-friendly）construction from Xiangtan city.Using relative factors analysis and scenario analysis,and based on the thesis of the allometric growth model,it explores the relative of the driving factors analysis of land use change from 1999 to 2008 in Xiangtang city,to be revealed relationship each other among being selected driving factors,and monitoring land resource system instability of land-use change process in Xiangtan city.The conclusion pointed： ⑴ It was negative allometric growth between population change and arable land change among ten years.The cultivated area will weakly increase,but decrease on per capita when the population expanded.E.g.the population grows 1%,the cultivated area will increase 0.101 times,per capita cut down 0.000 1 times.⑵ On the relatives of each other among GDP,cultivated area and town residential land area in Xiangtan city,the allometric growth phenomenon don＇t exist.Although the correlation coefficient was described as r≥︱0.806＊＊︱,which weakly suggested that the GDP will affect the land and town residential land area.⑶ Minutely described the correlation by the allometric growth model come out ＇three-no-fitnesses＇,which reflects land resource system＇s structure and function is imperfect,system is instability,intensive use of land resources is not high in Xiangtan city.