引入信用风险变量的企业财务预警模型构建

Construction of the Financial Affairs Warning Model Introducing the Credit Risk Valuables

公司财务危机预警研究,在国内外尤其是在资本市场发达的国家,是一个被广泛关注的课题,财务预警作为经济运行的晴雨表和企业经营状况的指示灯,不仅具有较高的学术价值,而且具有巨大的应用价值。文章在分析和比较国内外学者各种财务预警研究方法的基础上,首先引入国际上非常著名的KMV模型,然后,本文选择财务指标、信用风险的违约距离和预期违约率一起,作为研究变量,进行实证测试。研究结果显示,加入KMV变量后的模型,其预测财务危机的精度最高,显示出信用风险变量在提高预测能力上作用明显。

Companies financial crisis pre-warning is a widely concerned project in home and abroad,especially in the nations that has developed capital market.Financial pre-warning has the great academic value,meanwhile has the huge application value.This article firstly introduced the famous KMV model on the base of analysis and contrast on the all kinds of financial pre-warning,and made some empirical test with research variables.The result showed that the model with the KMV variables had the highest accuracy for crisis pre-warning,which told us credit risk variables had obvious effect on improving the pre-warning abilities.