我国商业健康保险发展影响因素实证分析

Empirical analysis of influence factors on the commercial health insurance's development

近年来我国商业健康保险市场发展迅速,但其总体水平与我国庞大的人口规模和高额的医疗费用支出相比还存在很大差距。本文首先分析了商业健康保险供给与需求的影响因素,然后从实证分析的角度出发,运用计量经济学方法和EVIEWS软件对近几年的健康保险相关数据进行了回归分析。1998—2009年的数据分析结果显示:我国城镇居民人均可支配收入和保险意识的提高显著地促进了商业健康保险的发展,短期内社会医疗保障水平的提高与商业健康保险的发展呈负相关,人均医疗卫生费用、老年人口比重及城镇人口数量对商业健康保险的发展无明显影响。

In recent years,commercial health insurance market has grown fast. However,compared with Chinese massive population and huge medical expenses,there is still a big gap. This paper analyzes the influence factors of commercial health insurance,and establishes a regression model from the perspective of empirical analysis,using EVIEWS software and relatively data. The result shows that：disposable income of urban residents,insurance awareness significantly promote the development of commercial health insurance,while the level of social health insurance and the commercial health insurance＇s development exisits the inverse correlation in the short term. Per capita health care costs,the proportion of elder population and the urban population have no significant effect on the development of commercial health insurance.