电力系统边际发电成本的概率分布函数估计方法

An Approach to Estimation of Probability Distribution Function of Marginal Generating Cost of Power System

应用系统边际发电单元的概念，利用随机生产模拟方法，提出一种计算电力系统边际发电成本概率分布函数的有效方法。它不仅能考虑发电机组强迫停运和负荷预测的不确定性，且易于计入燃料价格的不确定性。该方法物理概念清晰，易于理解和实现，可用于电力市场的定价研究。用ＩＥＥＥ－ＲＴＳ的数据测试结果表明了该方法的合理性和有效性。

Using the concept of marginal generating unit and the technologies of probabilistic production simulation, an efficient method was developed for estimating probability distribution function of marginal generating cost of power system. In this method, not only the uncertainties of generating unit forced outage and load demand forecast are considered, but the uncertainty related to fuel price can also be easily incorporated. The presented methodology embodies clear physical concepts so that it can easily be theoretically understood and computationally realized. Application of this method to IEEE-RTS shows its reasonableness and effciency. Further along, this method can be useful in pricing studies of electricity market.