西北4省(区)2009年气候预测业务质量新旧评估办法对比

Comparison of the Quality Evaluation of Climate Prediction Operation for Northwest China in 2009 by Old and New Evaluation Methods

通过对甘肃、青海、陕西、宁夏4省(区)2009年预测业务新旧评估办法的对比发现,无论是降水还是温度,年平均和最高值旧办法均比新办法系统性偏高15%左右,而最低值旧办法多数情况比新办法系统性偏低。旧办法最高值达满分的概率相对较高,尤其是温度预测,但新办法得满分的概率很小;但一旦报反旧办法得零分的概率很高,而新办法一般至少得20分。与短期预报和预测业务旧评估办法相比,气候预测新评估办法更严格。

Through comparison of the evaluation of climate prediction operation for Gansu,Qinghai,Shaanxi and Ningxia in 2009 by the old and new evaluation methods respectively,for precipitation and temperature,it has been found that both the average annual score and the maximum score by the old method were systematic higher about 15% than that by the new method,but the minimum score by the old method was systematic lower than that by the new method in most cases.It was relatively higher probability to reach full mark for the maximum sore by the old method especially to temperature prediction,and less probability by the new method.A zero score was high probability by the old method when the prediction was opposite to the fact,but 20 points by the new method at least.The new evaluation method for climate prediction was more rigorous than not only the old method,but also the evaluation method for weather forecast.