政府行政成本增长过快的原因分析——基于1978-2008年数据的实证分析

A Reason Analysis on the Excessive Growth of Government Administration Costs——An Empirical Analysis Based on Data from 1978 to 2008

基于我国政府行政成本增长过快的现状,采用1978-2008年的相关数据和向量自回归(VAR)模型,深入探讨了政府行政成本增长过快与其相关影响因素之间的动态关系。实证分析发现:推动我国政府行政成本不断增长的最主要因素是我国行政人员数量的增长和财政收入的变化,经济发展水平在短期内对行政成本的影响较小,但其影响会随时间逐步加大,行政人员工资及物价水平对行政成本的影响较小。

Based on the rapid growth of the administrative costs and the existing literature, this paper used statistical data from 1978 to 2008 and vector auto regression （VAR） model to study the rapid growth of the administrative costs of the government and its related factors. The Empirical analysis found that： the main factor of promoting the administration cost is the increase of administrative personnel and changes in revenue growth; the short term impact of economic development level on the administrative costs is smaller, but its impact will gradually increase over time; executive wages and prices level has little effect on administrative costs.