湖北省FDI产业影响因素及对策实证研究

Empirical Analysis on Factors Effecting FDI Industry and Strategies in Hubei Province

以湖北省为案例对1990—2008年外商直接投资(FDI)及其产业影响因素关系进行实证研究。利用单位根检验对变量平稳性考察基础上,应用协整方法对变量的长期均衡进行分析,应用格兰杰因果检验方法对变量之间的因果关系进行经验性研究。结果表明:FDI、财政收入比值、铁路密度和地区生产总值、固定资产投资、第三产业发展水平之间存在长期协整关系;格兰杰因果检验方法表明FDI与财政占地区生产总值比例之间存在双向因果关系;铁路密度与FDI之间不存在因果关系;地区生产总值、固定资产投资、第三产业发展水平与FDI存在单向因果关系。并为"十二五"期间湖北省吸引FDI提供了政策依据。

Taking Hubei Province as a case, this paper makes an empirical analysis on FDI and the underl-ying influencing factors during the period of 1990-2008. Based on the investigation of variable stability through unit root testing, this paper conducts an analysis on the long term equilibrium of variables with co-integration method, and in the meantime carries out an empirical test on the causality relationships among variables by employing Granger causality test approach. The result suggests that there exist long-term co-integration relationships among FDI, the ratio of fiscal investment, railway density, gross document product, fixed asset investment and the tertiary-industry development. Granger causality test suggests there is a mutual causal relationship between the ratio of fiscal investment and FDI. No significant causal relationship is discovered between tertiary industry and FDI. Granger test also suggests that there exist unidirectional causal relationships between industry professionals, fiscal investment and FDI. In addition, there exist uni-directional causal relationships between gross document product, fixed asset investment,tertiary industry and FDI; The research result of this paper can provide policy reference for Hubei province in the attraction of FDI during the ＂Twelfth five year period＂.