中国食品价格上涨因素及其对总体通货膨胀的影响

What drives China's food-price inflation and how Does it affect the aggregute inflation

一般认为中国的食品价格上涨主要是由自然灾害等供给冲击造成的,但是我们的研究表明,中期来看,需求压力的作用更为重要。这说明,即使非食品价格上涨仍是温和的,相关部门也需要对食品价格快速上涨作出政策反应。同时,我们发现,食品价格上涨尚未对非食品价格上涨造成明显的"二轮效应"。特别是,尽管食品价格上涨已经推高了中国的通货膨胀预期,但尚未成为工资上涨的决定性因素。然而从中期来看,随着工人在工资设定中议价权的增大,这种状况可能会改变。

It is typically argued that China＇s food-price inflation has been mainly driven by supply-side shocks including natural disasters. Our research, however, shows that demand pressures have played a more important role from a medium-term perspective. This suggests surging food prices may call for policy reactions even if non- food-price inflation is tame. Meanwhile, we find food-price inflation has not generated significant second-round effects on non-food-price inflation. In particular, while food-price inflation has pushed up China＇s inflation expectations, it has not been an important determinant of wage growth. This situation may change as workers gain more bargaining power in wage setting in the medium term.