中国返程投资的影响因素研究

The Determinants of Round—tripping FDI in China

本文通过金融危机中中国FDI的"独立行情"以及"两税合一"后假外资不减反增等现象的观察和思考,提出颇具中国特色的研究对象——返程投资,从微观角度揭示返程投资的影响因素,并建立VECM模型进行实证研究。结论是中国返程投资的影响因素基于"可实现差别待遇"和资本管制等制度变迁。虽然税收、汇率、房价以及资本管制力度对返程投资规模都有影响,但从影响程度看,影响返程投资最为重要的因素是汇率,其次为资本管制力度和房价,税收影响较小。

Based on the outstanding performance of FDI in China in the financial crisis after the ＂two tax systems into one＂ reform, the paper focus on an interesting Chinese issue： round-tripping FDI. By employing an excess-profit model and VECM empirical model, the authors analyze the determinants of round-tripping FDI and then conclude that the institutions, i. e. the realizable discriminate treatment and capital regulation are the basic determinants. Among tax, exchange rate, housing price and capital regulation, which all play a role, but in terms of incidence, exchange rate is the most important determinant and capital regulation, housing price, tax decrease in turn.