摘要
利用2005—2008年的月度统计数据,在协整分析的基础上,运用向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对影响我国就业的主导因素和效应进行了动态分析。结果表明,CPI、贸易顺差、投资和消费4个因素对就业有较为明显的促进效应,CPI和贸易顺差的短期贡献较为明显,而投资和消费的长期贡献较为明显。提出了通过合理利用投资,持续促进消费,从而刺激就业的建议。
Based on monthly data from 2005 to 2008 and cointegration analysis,vector error correction model,impulse response function and variance decomposition were applied to analyze dominant factors of employment in China and their dynamic effects.The results showed that CPI,trade surplus,investment and consumption have obvious promotion effects on employment.CPI and trade surplus have more obvious effects on employment in the short run;on the contrary,investment and consumption is more obvious in the long run.Therefore,the policy to stimulate employment such as making good use of investment and prompting consumption were proposed.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》
CAS
2010年第5期795-798,共4页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering
关键词
就业
影响因素
向量误差修正模型
脉冲响应函数
方差分解
employment
effect factors
vector error correction model
impulse response function
variance decomposition
