中国农产品贸易模式的演进与背离:1992～2008

Changes and Distortions of Chinese Trade Patterns in Agricultural Products: 1992-2008

根据传统比较优势理论,一国特定产品贸易的国际竞争力取决于其比较优势的实际状况。文章利用SITC Rev.3三位数层次的1992～2008年中国的贸易数据,发现无论初级农产品还是农业制成品都存在着对称显示性比较优势(RSCA)与净出口比率(NRX)严重背离的现象。通过构建新的贸易模式背离倾向指数(H指数),进一步分析表明存在NRX高于RSCA的系统性背离倾向。上述背离在本质上与中国的出口导向型发展战略保持一致,但却很可能以牺牲经济效率为代价。

The traditional comparative advantage theory predicts that the competitiveness of a specific product of a country is determined by its comparative advantage.Using SITC Rev.3 3-digit level trade data of 1992-2008,the author identifies serious distortions of revealed symmetric comparative advantage（RSCA）and net ratio of exports（NRX）for both primary and manufactured agricultural products trade.By employing a new measurement of H index,further analysis indicates a systematic propensity for the distortion pattern where NRX overwhelms RSCA.The paper argues that the distortions are virtually consistent with the export-oriented development strategy of China,probably at the expense of economic efficiency.