FDI升级、贸易顺差和福利水平——理论及对中国的经验分析

FDI Upgrading,Trade Surplus and Welfare Level——Theory and the Empirical Analysis of China

在理论分析基础上,构建了以贸易差额和福利水平为研究对象,以流入发展中国家"新型出口贸易"部门FDI为主要影响因素的计量模型。然后以1999～2007年为样本期间,利用所选取的代表新型出口贸易部门的五大行业面板数据,对中国贸易顺差及福利水平进行实证研究。结果表明:在既定的假设条件下,流入到新型贸易部门的FDI"升级"对中国贸易顺差及福利水平的提高具有显著积极影响。根据上述结果,提出其政策启示及进一步研究的方向。

Based on the theoretic analysis, an econometric model is established by taking trade surplus and welfare level as research objects, and the FDI which flows into the developing countries as ＂new export trade＂ sectors as the main influencing factors. Then an empirical analy- sis is made on China＇ s trade surplus and welfare level by using the panel data of five representa- tive industries of new export sectors from 1999 to 2007. The results show： under given assump- tions, FDI ＂upgrading＂ which flows into the new export sectors has significant positive influence on improving China＇ s trade surplus and welfare level. Some policy enlightenments and future research prospects are proposed.