中国通货膨胀持续性时变特征及其来源分析

An Analysis on the Time Varying Characteristic and the Source of China's Inflation Persistence

通货膨胀持续性关系到货币政策效果。利用1983～2008年月度CPI数据,应用自回归模型对我国通货膨胀持续性系数进行滚动样本估计以考察通货膨胀持续性动态特征。结果显示,无论是通货膨胀期间或者通货紧缩期间,都表现出强烈的持续性特征。而企业后顾性定价行为、非理性预期模式以及经济行为主体对货币政策的适应性是我国通货膨胀持续性长期高企的三种可能原因。

Inflation persistence has close relationship with the effect of monetary policies. The monthly CIP data from 1983 to 2008 and the auto regression model are used to make rolling sample evaluation on China＇ s inflation persistence index in order to investigate the dynamic char- acteristic of inflation persistence. The results show that China＇ s inflation has strong persistence no matter during inflation or deflation. The adaptability of backward - looking pricing behavior of en- terprises, non - rational expectation model, and economic subjects are three reasons which proba- bly lead to the long - term high level of the inflation persistence of China.