我国学生生长趋势与干预研究

Trend and Intervention of Chinese Students' Growth

利用1985-2005年全国学生体质调研数据,采用经修正后GM(1,1)模型,预测全国7-18岁汉族学生各年龄段身高、体重生长发育的期望值。主要研究结果:未来10年我国汉族学生身高发育持续提前,且生长速度放缓;全国汉族学生的体重生长速度加快,由此隐含中小学生肥胖问题将成为未来时期威胁我国学生生长发育的重大健康问题,应引起教育、卫生部门的重视与关注;合理营养、良好的生长环境与健康的行为方式是保证学生生长发育良好发展的前提和基础,而体育锻炼是促进学生生长发育的有效途径,倡导"营养+环境+运动+行为"新时期健康主流文化理念,将成为今后一个时期关注学生体质健康的嵌入点。

By means of the data derived from the survey into national students＇ physique between 1995 and 2005 and the revised GM（1,1） model,this paper predicts growth expectations about the height and weight of students of Han nationality from 7 to 10 in age.Major research results are as follows： in the next ten years,Chinese students of Han nationality will continue to develop and grow but their growth rate will slow down;the weight increase rate among nation-wide students of Han nationality becomes faster,which implies that the obesity problem in secondary and elementary school students will pose a major health threat to the development and growth of Chinese students in the future and call for the attention of education and health departments;students＇ development and growth are mainly related to nutrition and environment,so reasonable nutrition,good environment and healthy behavior are the precondition and basis to secure good students＇ development and growth.Exercise is an effective means to promote students＇ development and growth,so advocating ＂nutrition＋environment＋exercise＋behavior＂ will become the health mainstream cultural philosophy in the new period and an breakthrough in caring about students＇ physique health.