基于Maxent与GIS的锈色棕榈象在中国潜在的适生性分析

Potential Suitability Analysis of Rhychophorus ferrugineus (Olvier) in China Based on Maxtent and GIS

选用Maxent生态位模型与地理信息系统(GIS)相结合,综合分析影响锈色棕榈象Rhychophorus ferrugineus(Olvier)生长发育的环境因素,结合寄主分布特征,直观定量地获得了锈色棕榈象在我国的潜在发生区,计算结果经ROC曲线分析法验证,Maxent生态位模型的AUC值为0.958(非常接近1),表明预测获得了较好的效果。

In recent years,Rhychophorus ferrugineus（Olvier）,which belongs to Curculionidae,Coleoptera,is becoming a very serious pest on coconut.Ecological environment factors affecting its growth and development were comprehensively analyzed by combining Maxent ecological niche models with geographical information system technique and the distribution features of the host plants were taken into consideration.As a result,the relatively exact potential distribution region of R.ferrugineus all over China was obtained quantitatively and intuitively.The checked result of receiver operating characteristic（ROC）curve analysis showed that the area under curve（AUC）value of Maxent ecological niche models reached 0.958（very close to 1）,indicating that the predicted results was fairly satisfactory.