中国劳动力转移与经济增长的实证研究

The Impact of Chinese Rural Surplus Labor Transfer on Economic Growth

本文采用劳动力配置效应模型研究城乡二元经济结构的背景下中国农村剩余劳动力转移对经济发展的作用机制。实证结果发现,1997—2008年中国农业剩余劳动力转移对劳动生产率提高和GDP增长的贡献分别为16.33%和1.72%。分地区看,剩余劳动力转移对中部地区劳动生产率和GDP提高的影响要明显高于东部地区,而西部地区在剩余劳动力转移过程中受益最小。为应对当前剩余劳动力总量的减少、转移速度减慢以及对劳动力需求结构的变化,政府应该在加快城市化进程、发展中小企业、加强农村剩余劳动力教育培训、调整经济结构实现本地就业等方面做出努力。

This paper study the mechanism of the rural surplus labor＇s transfer on economic development using the labor allocation model under the Chinese urban-rural dual economic structure. The empirical results indicate that from 1997 to 2008, the impact of the rural surplus labor＇s transfer on the whole society labor productivity and GDP growth was 16.33% and 1.72%. Regionally, the surplus labor＇s transfer on labor productivity and GDP is highest in the central region, while the western region benefits the least. With the decrease of the total amount of surplus labor, the low labor transfer and the change of the labor structure demand, it is urgent for the government to speed up the urbanization, develop the small and medium enterprise, increase the labor force skills training and change the mode of economic development to realize local employment.