复杂矿井涌水动态的混沌效应及其预测

Dynamic chaos effect and prediction of complicated mine water inrush

南北方许多复杂矿井特别是深部采煤矿井,其矿井涌水动态复杂,常呈不同程度的混沌效应,常规方法难以预测。文章针对该情况,研究探讨了复杂矿井混沌效应出现的机理。指出采矿作用下,地下水系统结构变化,矿井涌水水源的多来源性以及矿井地下水系统自身演化为复杂非线性耗散系统等导致了混沌效应的发生。在此基础上,通过实例,运用考虑混沌效应的RBF神经网络方法和基于Lyapunov指数的相空间重构方法对矿井涌水量动态进行了预测。结果表明,运用上述混沌时间序列方法进行短期预测是非常有效的,可为煤矿水害防治决策等提供科学依据。

In the north and south China,there are many complicated coal mines,specially the deep mine in coal production.The mine water inrush dynamics are complicated and have the chaos effect in different degree.The normal method would be hard applied to have a prediction.According to the conditions,the paper had a study and discussion on the mechanism of the chaos effect from the complicated mine chaos effect.Under the mining effect,the paper pointed out that the variation of the underground water system structure,the multi resources of the mine water resources and the self evolution of the mine underground water system would cause the chaos effect occurred fro the complicated nonlinear dissipation system.Base on the circumstances,with the practices cases,the RBF nervous network method of the chaos effect considered and the phase space restructured method base on the Lyapunov index was applied to predict the mine water inrush dynamic.The results showed that the above chaos time sequence method applied to make a short term prediction could be very effective and could provide the scientific basis for the decision to prevent and control the mine water disaster.