基于集合降水预报产品的汛期洪水预报试验

Preliminary Experiment on Flood Forecast in Flood Season Based on Ensemble Precipitation Prediction Products

为改善因水文模型中降水等输入信息的不确定性对确定性水文预报精度的严重影响,以湖北省漳河流域为例,将中尺度暴雨数值模式(AREM)集合降水预报产品输入到新安江水文模型中,对该流域2008年汛期一次典型的洪水过程进行预报测试。结果表明:基于集合数值预报产品的水文预报能在洪峰流量、峰现时间等水文预报要素上获取更多的预报信息,并将单一的确定性预报结果转化为可能发生范围的预报,提高了水文预报结果的可靠性。

In order to reduce the unfavourable influence on hydrological forecast precisions owing to the uncertainty of information,such as rain,putting into hydrological model,the paper describes a forecast research taking an information of the ensemble precipitation forecast product from AREM model about the flood process in flood season in the Zhanghe basin in Hubei province in 2008 as an input to the Xin＇anjiang hydrological model and making a forecast test in the above area.The results show that more hydrological forecast information on flood peak runoff and flood peak happening time could be gotten and the sole definite forecast result could be transformed to the possible scope forecast by hydrological forecast based on precipitation ensemble prediction,thus the reliability of forecast result could be improved.