基于环境因子的东、黄海鲐鱼剩余产量模型及应用

APPLICATION OF ENVIRONMENTALLY DEPENDENT SURPLUS PRODUCTION MODEL FOR SCOMBER JAPONICUS IN THE EAST CHINA SEA AND YELLOW SEA

海洋环境是影响中上层鱼类资源的重要因子之一。本文根据东、黄海鲐鱼推断的产卵场海域平均海表面温度（SST）和适宜SST（15~21℃）范围,假设环境容量K和内禀自然增长率r与环境因子呈线性关系,建立了基于SST的剩余产量模型（Environmentally Dependent Surplus Produc-tion Model,EDSP模型）,分析环境因子对东、黄海鲐鱼资源的影响。用Akaike信息法则（Akaike Information Criterion,AIC）对不同模型进行了比较。研究结果表明,产卵场适宜SST面积与平均SST成反比,基于产卵场适宜SST面积的ESDP模型为最优模型,并证实产卵场适宜SST面积大小与Kr、呈线性关系,进而对鲐鱼繁殖成功率和补充量的影响。研究结果可为鲐鱼资源量的预测和科学管理提供参考。

Marine environmental variable is one of the important factors affecting fishery resources and fishing ground for pelagic fishes.Based on the average sea surface temperature（SST） and habitat area（SST from 15 to 21 C） in the spawning ground of Chub mackerel（Scomber japonicus） during the spawning season（March to May）,and the hypotheses that the linear relationship between environmental capacity（K）,intrinsic growth rate（r） and habitat index are existed,the paper developed the environmentally dependent surplus production model（EDSP model） combined with the environmental factors（spatial average SST and favourable area） to analyze the effect of environmental factors on the resources of S.japonicus in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea.Based on the Akaike Information Criterion（AIC）,the optimum EDSP model was compared and selected.The results indicated that negative correlation may be existed between habitat area and spatial average SST,and the best model is the ESDP model based on habitat area with favourable SST.The optimum EDSP model indicated that the habitat area with favourable SST has a linear relation with K and r,which further affect the reproductive success and recruitment of S.japonicus.These results can provide a reference for the scientific management and forecasting resources of S.japonicus.