马尔萨斯人口模型在广州市人口预测中的应用

The Application of Malthus Population Model in the Prediction of Guangzhou Population

利用马尔萨斯人口模型对广州市的人口数据进行分析和预测,发现效果很好,说明马尔萨斯人口模型适合广州市人口,能反映出广州市人口的变化规律.利用马尔萨斯人口模型对广州市人口数据进行预测,能为广州市的决策者提供一些有益的信息.马尔萨斯人口模型xk=x0(1+r)k关键的指标是r,通过计算机搜索的方法得到较适合广州市人口模型的r值为1.54%.

The Malthus population model is used to analyse and predict the population data of Guangzhou.It finds that Malthus population model is good for Guangzhou population data,and it can reveal the changes in the population of Guangzhou.The prediction can offer useful information for Guangzhou policymakers.The key index of Malthus population model xk=x0（1＋r）k is r,and it finds that the good value of r is 1.54 % for Guangzhou population data,searched for by a computer.