模糊层次分析法在系统中长期负荷协调控制预测中的研究

Study of fuzzy AHP model to system mid-long term load coordination control forecasting

电力负荷预测是电力系统规划的重要工作之一。提出一种改进的模糊层次分析法来进行中长期负荷预测。首先,采用三角模糊数表征专家判断信息以充分考虑专家判断的模糊性,采用层次分析法对专家判断结果进行处理以得到方案层各方案的最优权重。该负荷预测模型综合考虑了影响电力负荷的多种不确定因素,并在综合不同模型预测结果的过程中引入专家经验。最后,研究结果表明,该方法相比传统方法能够更好地应用于电网中长期电力负荷预测。

Power load forecasting is one of the important parts in power system planning.This paper focused on the research of load forecasting and proposed an improved fuzzy AHP for mid-long term load forecasting.Firstly,Triangular fuzzy number is introduced to the model for indicating the judgments of experts,and then AHP is used for dealing with the judgments so as to obtain optimal weights of different forecasting schemes.The factors which can influence power load forecasting are taken into consideration in the proposed algorithm,meanwhile,the experts＇ experiences are combinated into the processing of load forcasting to improve the accuracy.Finally,the experiment results shown that the presented algorithm can fit the medium and long term load forecasting better than other traditional approaches.