江苏省城市化与服务业发展的动态计量分析

Study on the Dynamic Relation between Urbanization and Development of Service Industry in Jiangsu Pprovince

利用1990—2008年江苏省的相关数据,对城市化与服务业发展的动态关系进行了分析,结果表明:城市化和服务业发展之间存在一定的Granger因果关系和长期均衡关系,服务业发展是城市化水平提高的Granger原因;服务业发展与城市化任何一个的变动都会对另一个和自身产生影响,其中,服务业发展的变动对城市化和自身会产生较强的正向冲击;城市化的变动对服务业发展在短期和长期内均产生正向冲击,但是作用均不显著。

This paper investigates the dynamic relation between urbanization and growth of service sector with correlation data about 1990-2008 of Jiangsu Province,the result indicates that： there is a causality and long-term balanced relation between urbanization and growth of service sector,growth of service sector is the Granger cause of urbanization;any change of either urbanization or growth of service sector can influence another and itself,especially,the change of growth of service sector has strong impact on urbanization and itself;the change of urbanization has a positive impact on growth of service sector both in the recent and in the long-term,but the effect is little.