基于灰色系统理论的信贷规模预测与结构分析

Study on Credit Scale Prediction and Its Structure Analysis with Grey System Theory

以2000年至2008年的安徽省各类信贷数据为样本,运用灰色关联度方法和GM(1,1)模型,对安徽省信贷规模与信贷结构作关联分析,并对2009-2012年安徽省信贷进行预测。结果表明:在这9年中,各项贷款受贷款总额的影响程度几乎差不多,其关联程度均为0.65左右,其中中长期贷款受贷款总额的影响最大;未来几年内,安徽省整体信贷规模在不断增长,贷款总额逐年递增,安徽信贷规模发展趋势及其信贷结构具有显著的新特征。

By using the method of grey system theory and GM（1,1） model,this paper analysis the correlation between credit scale and its structure,which under taking samples based the credit data from 2000 to 2008.The result shows： in the past nine years,the total credit amount have almost similar impact on various loans,the correlation rate nearly 0.65,and the medium and long-ranged loans suffer the largest influence of the total credit amount.In the future years,we predict the credit scale,the total loans of Anhui province will increased and showed a new characteristics.