消费的货币供给冲击效应中房地产市场渠道的贡献度研究

Research on the Contribution of Market Channel of Real Estate in the Impact Effects of Money Supply of Consumption

运用SAVR模型考察在消费的货币供给冲击中房地产市场渠道的作用,能够发现货币供给是引起消费变动的重要因素。在由货币供给引起的消费变动中,房地产市场渠道发挥着一定的作用。短期内,货币供给增加的房地产市场渠道刺激了消费的增长,但其贡献度逐渐降低;长期内,货币供给增加导致的房地产价格上涨制约了消费,房地产市场存在负的财富效应,而且随着时间的推移,其负的财富效应也越来越大。因此,中央银行通过调节货币供给量来影响消费等实体经济因素时,应该参考房地产价格因素,将房地产价格作为货币政策传递的中介目标之一。

This paper is to investigate the function of market channel of real estate in the impact effects of money supply of consumption by using SAVR model.The analysis suggests that the money supply is the important factor which causes consumption to fluctuate.In the changes of consumption caused by money supply,market channels of real estate play a certain role.In the short term,the market channels of real estate which increased by money supply stimulated the growth of consumption but its contribution is increasingly reducing.But,in the long term,the increase of real estate price which caused by money supply constraints the consumption,and there is negative wealth effect in the market of real estate,and as time goes by,the negative wealth effect is bigger and bigger.Therefore,the Central Bank should take house prices into account when adjusting money supply to affect entity economic factors like consumption,and take real estate price as one of intermediate targets of transmitting monetary policy.