中国货币政策的区域经济稳定效应分析——基于2000-2008年省份月度数据的实证研究

Regional Economic Stabilization Effect of Monetary Policy in China: Empirical Study Based on the Monthly Data of Provinces from 2000 to 2008

文章基于TVP-GARCH模型构建货币政策反应函数,利用时变参数模型构建包含货币政策变量的省份宏观经济波动模型,发现货币政策对各省份经济的稳定性作用并不明显,可预期的货币政策的省份稳定效应高于不可预期的货币政策,而经济冲击和货币政策制定层面引发的货币增长的不确定性,加大了省份经济波动;货币政策的经济稳定能力存在明显的省份差异,和经济周期同步性以及货币、信用和汇率三个传导渠道的省份特征密切相关。

Based on the reaction function of monetary policy from the TVP-GARCH model,the paper empirically analyzes the provincial economic stabilization effects of monetary policy by the time-varying parameter model.The results show that the effects of monetary policy on provincial economic stabilization are not significant,and the stabilization effects of expected monetary policy are stronger than the ones of unexpected monetary policy.However,the uncertainty of money growth caused by economic shocks and monetary policy-making magnify provincial economic fluctuations.The economic stabilization effects of monetary policy,which are closely related to the synchronization of business cycle and the monetary transmissions channels,such as money channel,credit channel and exchange rate channel,differ wildly among provinces.