基于秩和比法的突发事件固有风险水平评估

Inherent risk assessment of emergency incidents based on the rank sum ratio method in China

建立突发事件固有风险指标框架,定量评估突发事件固有风险水平。选择自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生事件、社会安全事件等四大类突发事件造成的死亡人数和经济损失方面的量化指标,采用秩和比法计算全国31省市区的突发事件相对风险水平,经滑动平均处理后,得到各地突发事件固有风险指数。求解各地突发事件固有风险指数与其累积频率对应的概率单位值的回归方程,将其排序分档,可把全国分为高风险、较高风险、一般风险和低风险水平等四类地区。结果表明我国各地区突发事件固有风险水平存在一定的差异,总体呈西高东低分布。突发事件固有风险指数可定量评估各地区的突发事件固有风险水平,突发事件固有风险指标设置合理、方法可行。

A framework of emergency incident risk indexes was established to quantitatively assess the local comprehensive emergency inherent risk.Quantitative indicators of fatalities and economic loss from natural disasters,accidents,social events,and public health events were selected.And the method of rank sum ratio was used to calculate the relative risk level of emergency incident in 31 provinces in China,from which the emergency inherent risk index（EIRI）can be reached by the moving average method.Solving the regression function of the local EIRI and the probability-unit values of its cumulative frequency,the local EIRI was then ranked and classified into four groups such as high-risk,relatively-high-risk,general-risk,and low-risk areas,rationally.The results showed that the local emergency inherent risk level is different in China,which distribution is ＂west high,east low＂.The local emergency inherent risk level can be presented by the EIRI.The emergency incident risk indicators are effectvie,and the method is feasible.