中国转向“结构均衡增长”的战略要点和政策选择

China's Shift to Balanced Growth:Strategic Issues and Policy Options

中国预计2012年将进入中高收入的发展阶段。未来一二十年中国面临着重大抉择,是从赶超转向均衡发展的关键时期。中国此前成功赶超的战略已经不适合这一时期,必须进行重大的调整,转向均衡结构,逐步形成内生的经济发展机制。否则,很容易落入"陷阱"而导致增长难以持续。本文认为,在城市化阶段,通过空间再配置和创新来提升经济效率,是从赶超走向均衡的必由之路。但扭曲的城市化发展则更会扭曲结构。因此政策转向的核心是调整政府行为,发挥市场的基础性作用,在短期增长稳定性和中长期结构均衡化之间进行平衡。只有通过好的城市化发展模式,并配合以技术和制度创新,寻找出从工业化赶超转向均衡结构发展的路径,依据可持续发展规划目标加以渐近的、连续不断的牵引、约束,才能逐步将经济发展失衡纠正调整到一个结构均衡的可持续发展轨道上来。中国应继续延伸"十一五"提出的以科学发展观统领经济和社会的基本原则,加快形成一个具有中国特色的可持续发展模式:稳速增效、普遍分享和天人合一的均衡体系。

China is expected to become an upper-middle income economy by 2012.The next one or two decades would be a critical period for China to transform from a catch-up growth model to one featuring balanced structure,for which China will have to face many challenges and choices.Since its successful catch-up strategy is no longer suitable for the new era,China must make significant adjustments to shift to a balanced growth and gradually develop a mechanism of endogenous economic growth. Otherwise,it is easy for China to fall into the'middle-income trap'and fail to have sustainable growth. This article argues that as urbanization continues,China must enhance its economic efficiency through spatial re-allocation and innovation to realize the shift from the catch-up strategy to a balanced growth. Distorted urbanization,however,would distort economic structure and therefore,the core of the policy shift is to adjust government functions and unleash the essential role of the market in allocating resources to balance short-term stability in growth and mid-and long-term structural equilibrium. Only through a rational model of urbanization combined with technical and institutional innovation can China find the path of shifting from industrial catch-up to balanced growth and,based on its planned targets of sustainable development,ultimately realize such a shift through gradual and continued efforts. China should continue to implement the basic principles of'scientific development outlook'in guiding its economic and social development,which was put forward in the 11th Five-Year Plan period,so that it can accelerate its effort to build a sustainable growth model with Chinese characteristics,one that features steady,efficient and equitable growth and harmony between Nature and human beings.