全球气候政治的变革与中国面临的三角难题

Changes in Global Climate Politics and China’s Triangle Dilemma

后哥本哈根时代的气候政治将向何种方向演变?作者通过对气候与政治之间关系的回顾,探讨了气候变化作为自变量影响气候政治演变的特点和方向。随着气候变化的恶果不断显现,地缘政治大国气候博弈的合法性正在丧失,减排与发展的矛盾的重要性也要逐步让位于气候问题解决的迫切性,并且可能从根本上推动全球建立一套具有实质约束力的全球"深度"治理机制。针对《京都议定书》框架下地缘政治的僵局,作者分别探讨了三类国家即发达国家、发展中国家和新兴大国的代表中国所面临的三角难题,指出只有寻求解决问题的新思路,才能破解当下气候政治面临的多重难题,然后从"内政协调"的理论视角探讨了全球气候治理制度所可能取得的进展,为中国应对气候变化战略调整提出了具有前瞻性的看法和建议。

By tracing the evolution of the relationship between climate and politics,the author analyzes the characteristics and directions of global climate politics,regarding climate change an independent variable.The author argues,with increasingly severe consequences of climate change,the legitimacy of geopolitical power’s climate game is getting lost;the contradiction between emission reduction and the importance of development will gradually give way to the urgency of the climate change and may ultimately facilitate the establishment of a binding global governance mechanism.In response to the geo-political stalemate in the framework of Kyoto Protocol,the author explores the triangle dilemmas of the developed countries,the developing countries and the emerging countries on behalf of China,and points out that only when a new way of thinking is found can those multiple problems of climate politics find a solution.Finally,the author proposes some forward-looking observations and recommendations for china’s climate change strategy.