住房价格变动对居民消费的影响效应研究——基于山西省的实证分析

The Effects Analysis on Housing Price Change to Household Consumption——An Empirical Analysis on Shanxi Province

本文利用1990-2008年的住房价格和居民消费时间序列数据,构建了山西省住房价格和居民消费的VAR模型。VAR模型的脉冲响应分析表明,住房价格、人均国内生产总值、居民消费水平、居民人均住房面积、居民可支配收入对住房价格的长期响应均为正,但短期和中期影响各不相同。住房价格对自身的短期冲击是正向的,在中期内表现出不确定性;住房价格对人均国内生产总值、居民人均住房面积、人均可支配收入的短期影响非常弱,但在中期内,对人均国内生产总值表现出不确定性,对居民人均住房面积的中期冲击为正向,对人均可支配收入影响非常弱;住房价格在短期内对居民消费水平有抑制作用,但在中长期内具有正向促进作用。

This paper constructs a VAR model about housing price and household consumption in ShanXi province by time series data of housing price and household consumption from 1990 to 2008.The dynamic analysis of VAR model shows the long-term impulse response of commercial housing price,GDP per capita,household consumption level,per capita living area and per capita disposable income to commercial housing price are all positive,but their short-term and middle-term impulse responses to commercial housing price are different.The short-term impulse of commercial housing price to itself is positive,but the middle-term impulse of commercial housing price to itself is uncertainty;The short-term effects of commercial housing price to GDP per capita,per capita living area,per capita disposable income are very weak,while the middle-term effect of commercial housing price to GDP per capita is uncertainty,that of commercial housing price to per capita living area is positive,that of commercial housing price to per capita disposable income is very weak;The short-term effect of commercial housing price to household consumption level is negative,but the middle-term and long-term effects of commercial housing price to household consumption level are positive.