新疆精河县大农业系统能值利用情景预测(Ⅰ)——系统能值利用基本情况分析

Circumstance forecasting about energy-use of greater agricultural system in Jinghe County of Xinjiang(Ⅰ)——Anylysis on the Emergy-use state of the system

以新疆精河县大农业系统为研究对象,从能值角度出发,利用1990—2007年精河县已有的大农业系统能值利用数据,采用BP人工神经网络(ANN)方法预测了2008—2013年后续6年系统的能值利用情况.结果显示:预测的6年中,系统的能值自给率(ESR)、能值投资率(EIR)和环境负载率(ELR)都较前面18年的实际值表现出大幅度的波动.在预测的2008—2013年中,精河县大农业系统对可更新环境资源能值部分利用程度先是小幅增加,然后从2010年开始比例又大幅缩小,致使最终给系统造成不断增加的能值投资比率和持续加重的资源环境负载.

By taking greater agricultural system in J inghe County of Xinjiang as an example, the energy-use of the system from 2008 to 2013 was forecast based on the data of Jinghe County from 1990 to 2007 by means of Artificial Neural Nets （ANN）. The results indicated that three indexes such as ESR （Energy Self-support Ratio）, EIR （Energy Invest Ratio） and ELR （Environment Load Ratio） fluctuated by a wide marigin compared to the last 18 years. During 2008 to 2013, the energy input of renewable resources will increase a little at the first two years and then decrease by a wide margin, which will cause continuous increase ratio of energy investment into the system and continued more load on the resource environment.