中美关系中的俄罗斯因素

Russian factor in Sino-US relations

国内政治与对外政策具有极大的关联性。中国的对外战略也深受国内政治因素的影响。从1979年中美建交以来,在中美俄三角关系框架下,中国的外交战略可划分为四个阶段。第一阶段(1979～1989):以苏联为共同对手、没有经济联系的中美安全"准同盟";第二阶段(1989～1991):失去了共同对手的、失效的中美"准同盟";第三阶段(1991年12月～2001年9月):经济基础不足的中俄"准准同盟";第四阶段(2001年九一一事件后至今):中国平行发展与俄美关系,实行"双向合作"战略。中俄之间"准准结盟"关系主要体现在地区与国际事务合作、军事关系和部分政治关系,但并不意味着结成反美联盟。中美经贸、文化、知识联系非常密切,但政治、军事互信水平不高,也不可能形成G2集团。由于国内政治的复杂性,国内利益的多元化和多样性,中国平行发展与俄、美的关系,双向合作,良性互动,争取国家利益的最大化。

Home politics and foreign policy are closely interrelated. Likewise, China’s foreign strategy is deeply affected by home political factors. It can be divided into four stages under the framework of China-US-Russia triangular relations since the establishment of China-US diplomatic relations in 1979: (1) the first stage (1979—1989): the China-US Para-security alliance without economic ties against a common rival the Soviet Union; (2) the second stage (1989—1991) the ineffective China-US Para-alliance without a common rival; (3) the third stage (Dec. 1991—Sept. 2001) China-Russia Para-para alliance based on weak economies; and (4) the fourth stage (since the Sept 11 Incident of 2001): China’s parallel development of relations with Russia and US in its two-way cooperation strategy. China-Russia Para-para alliance is mainly manifested in regional and international cooperation, military ties and partial political ties, but this by no means implies an alliance against the US. China and US are closely related in trade, culture and knowledge, but lack political and military trust and cannot form G2. Due to the complicity of home politics, the pluralization and diversity of home interests, China is seeking the maximization of state interests by parallel development of ties with Russia and US, two-way cooperation and beneficial interactions.