土地价格、居民收入对商品住宅价格影响的动态分析——基于状态空间模型的实证

A Dynamic Analysis of Land Prices and Income Affecting the Price of Residential Property

本文基于状态空间模型,利用2004～2009年的季度数据,就土地价格、居民收入对商品住宅价格的影响进行了动态分析,结果表明:(1)2004～2006年底,由于政府2004年土地政策的"813"大限,地价对房价的影响是在波动中增加,但是缺乏弹性;居民收入对商品住宅价格的影响是在波动中减小,但是属于富有弹性;(2)2007～2009年,地价和居民收入变化对商品住宅价格的影响都比较稳定,都是属于缺乏弹性,居民收入对房价上涨的支撑渐显乏力;(3)相比土地价格的变化,居民收入的变化对商品住宅价格的影响更大。

By creating state space model, basing on quarterly data of 2004 - 2009, we studied that how land prices and income affect prices on property smaller; Secondly the price of residential property. The results show that ： firstly, from 2004 to 2006 the influence of land price became bigger, but lack of elasticity, while the influence of income on property price became from 2007 to 2009, the impact of land prices and income on property price is stable, but income has a weaker support to the rise of property price ; Finally, compared to land price, income affects the property price more seriously.