中国经济-环境系统的物质代谢分析

The Analysis on Material Metabolism of Chinese Environment -Economy System

为通过定量分析加深对循环经济的认识,类比生态系统物质循环并利用分室模型理论建立了经济一环境系统物质流模型,结合2005～2009年统计年鉴数据重点分析了我国经济系统的生产、消费和废弃物还原物质需求在未来30年的存量发展趋势,数值结果表明,我国的经济结构调整虽然取得了相对物质减量化,但废弃物还原方面投入不足,生产物质、消费物质和废弃物排放量仍呈指数型增长,经济发展的资源和环境压力依然很大。

In order to better understand circular economy using quantitative analysis, a material flow model, simula- ted eco - material cycle, for the economy - environment system was set up based on the compartment model theory. The thirty - year changing trends of material stock in the field of production, consumption and waste recycling were simulated using structure model with China statistical yearbook data from 2005 to 2009, and the numerical results indicated that though some relative material reduction was obtained after executing the policy of industrial restructuring, waste recycling departments were short of material input, the stocks of production, consumption and waste emissions were still maintaining exponential growth. Significant pressures from resource and environment are still there for economic development.