地方财政社会保障支出对就业的影响效应——基于1999～2008年的面板数据经验

Analysis on the Effect of Regional Fiscal Social Security Expenditure on the Employment——Based on the Panel Datas during the Period 1999～2008

通过对我国各省市1999～2008年的面板数据协整检验发现,地方财政社会保障支出与就业之间存在正向协整关系,各省市财政社会保障支出对就业的促进效应呈现一定的差异性,中东部特别是东部沿海省市有一定促进效应,而西部省市不显著。总体看,我国财政社会保障支出对就业的促进效应不是特别明显,回归系数显著的省市,弹性系数也非常小,说明增加社会保障支出促进就业的机制目前在我国并不通畅,意味着我国现行的社会保障体系不健全。建议通过控制好财政社会保障支出等经济变量,可以实现我国社会保障和就业的良性互动。

This paper analyses the regional fiscal social security expenditure＇s effect on the employment over the period 1999 -2008 by panel date＇s co -integration analysis . It＇s found that there exits a positive co -integration between fiscal social security expenditure and employment. But the effects are different among different provinces, and the east province have some promoting effects, while the west province don＇t have. In general , our country＇s effect of regional fiscal social security expenditure on the employment isn＇t obvious. Though the regression coefficient is obvious, the elasticity ratio is very small. So the mechanism of fiscal social security expenditure promoting employment isn＇t flexible. It means that our country＇s social security system is unsound. The policy implication lies in that we must control well the related variable, then the optimum interactive between social security and employment will be realized.