技术进步对就业影响的动态性和区域差异性分析

An Analysis on the Dynamic Effects and Regional Differences of Technological Progress to Employment

采用隐性变量法对1978～2007年技术进步率进行重新估算,然后利用VAR模型分析技术进步对就业的动态影响,结果表明,技术进步在短期内对就业有显著的负影响,但从长期看,技术进步则对就业有显著的正向影响。同时,采用Malmquist生产率指数法对全国31个省(市)的技术进步率进行计算,并与就业增长率进行回归,结果表明,东部地区和中部地区的技术进步对就业具有"扩张效应",而西部地区的技术进步对就业则有"收缩效应"。

This paper re-estimates the rate of technical progress by hidden variable method for 1978 ～ 2007 and then analyses the dynamic effects of technological advances on the employment with the VAR model.The results shows that technological progress has a significantly negative impact on employment in the short term,but in the long term,technological progress has significantly positive effects on the employment.We calculated the rate of technical progress about the 31 provinces using Malmquist index method and with the employment growth regression.The results show that the technological progress imposed ＂expansion ＂ effect on employment in the eastern and central areas,while it imposes ＂contraction＂effect on employment in the western region.