我国城镇贫困变动及影响因素研究——基于收入分布拟合及分解模型研究

China's Urban Poverty Changes and the Impact Factors Research——Based on Income Distribution Fitting and Decomposition Model Researching

通过非参数估计理论拟合收入分布计算贫困指数,对我国2000-2005年城镇贫困的变动状况进行了研究,并在此基础上,利用收入分布的位置和形状变化分解对引起贫困变动的原因进行了深入分析.贫困变动研究表明:从全国来看,贫困的广度和深度有所改善,但贫困人口间的收入不平等有一定程度的恶化.分地区来看,东部地区相对贫困人口有所增加,中部地区贫困状况明显改善,西部地区贫困状况明显恶化.贫困变动的影响因素分析表明:经济增长使贫困状况得到改善,而收入分配的不平等部分或全部抵消了改善的效果.但对于西部地区而言,经济增长在一定程度上恶化了贫困率水平.

The paper uses non-parameter estimation theory to fit the income distribution, and on the basis of this calculation of the various poverty indices,researching on China＇s urban poverty in 2000-2005;And then we analyse the impact factors of changes in poverty through the change of location and shape of income distribution.The results show that,from across the country perspective,the poverty situation has improved,but inequality among the poor has a certain extent worsened.Prom a regional perspective,in eastern region the relatively poor population has increased,and in central region the poverty situation has improved significantly,but in western region the poverty situation has worsened seriously.The analysis of various affect factors causing poverty changes found that,generally speaking,the economic growth factor will be made to improve conditions of poverty and the deterioration of income distribution will offset some or all improving effects.However,this situation to the western region is different,because economic growth to some extent worsens the poverty rate level.