中国农村人口与农村居民点用地的时空变化

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Population and Residential Land Change in Rural China

利用农村人口统计数据和土地利用现状数据,对我国农村人口与农村居民点用地变化的总体态势、区域格局及其耦合状态进行定量分析。研究表明:改革开放以来我国乡村常住人口和农业户籍人口数量变化分别于1996和2001年进入快速减少的新阶段,年均分别减少1 121×104和579×104人,而1996年以来农村居民点用地面积仍呈增长趋势,年均增长0.12%;农村人口与农村居民点用地增减协同演进的良性格局尚未出现,农村居民点用地效率依然粗放,且在北方地区和东部沿海地区更为突出。城乡二元体制是造成我国农村人口减少而农村居民点用地反增逆势发展的根本原因;在相对共性的人口流动和土地管理制度背景下,自然地理条件、经济发展水平、社会历史文化等因素的综合差异造成了二者变化的区域差异性。完善农村土地利用管控体系,因地制宜科学推进农户参与式农村居民点用地综合整治,以科学调控农村人口和农村居民点用地变化,是保障耕地红线、增加建设用地指标和推进新农村建设的综合途径,而创新统筹城乡发展的体制和机制,破除城乡二元结构,是实现这一目标的基本保障。

A better understanding of the spatio-temporal characteristics and driving mechanism of population and residential land change in rural China under rapid urbanization and industrialization is the important premise for constituting feasible policy and strategy promoting the farmland protection and new countryside construction. This paper systematically analyzes the overall trend, regional patterns and coupling types of China＇ s rural population and residential land change, using rural demographics from China Statistics Bureau and land-use data from the Department of Land and Resources of each province. The results showed that： since economic reform and open-door policy adopted in 1978, resident population in rural areas and agricultural household registration population have entered the transitional period of rapid decrease in 1996 and 2001, respectively. However, rural residential land continues to expand significantly. The benign pattern of the co-evolution of population and residential land in rural areas has not appeared, and the land utilization tends to be extensive, especially in northern and eastern coastal provinces. The root cause for rural residential land use plight is the dual-track institutional system which has long existed between urban and rural areas. Under the relatively common institutional background of migration and land management, combined differences in natural and geographical conditions, levels of economic development, history and social culture and other factors resulted in the dynamic patterns of population and residential land change in rural China. Based on improving the control system of rural land use, propelling the comprehensive consolidation of rural settlements scientifi- cally according to local conditions is an integrated approach to coordinate the numeric change of population and residential land in rural areas, protect farmland, add quota of construction land and promote the new countryside construction. Breaking the urban-rural dual-track structure and coordinating urban-rural development are necessary guarantees of realizing above objectives.