重庆市农业面源污染SD仿真研究

System Dynamics Simulation for Study on Non-point Source Agricultural Pollution of Chongqing City

根据农业生态环境系统多目标、高阶次、多反馈、非线性的特点,应用系统科学中的系统动力学(System Dynamics)原理和方法,建立了重庆市农业面源污染SD仿真模型,模拟了系统动态变化,定量预测了系统行为的动态演变趋势.并经过模型的模拟调控对比,提出了合适的优化方案.

Non-point source agricultural pollution,as an important aspect of environmental pollution,has direct effects on the sustainable development of the ＂society-economy-environment＂ system and has become a serious problem that we are all faced with. According to the characteristics of agricultural eco-environment system,an SD （system dynamics） simulation model of non-point source agricultural pollution of Chongqing city was established,which simulated its dynamic changes and quantitatively forecast its dynamic developing trend by means of system dynamics. Finally,the related indices in different schemes were obtained,from which the best scheme was put forward to coordinate development of this system.