水价改革及其相关因素的一般均衡分析

A general equilibrium analysis of water price reform and related factors

水价改革是实现水需求管理、进而应对日趋紧张的水资源供需状况的重要手段之一。了解水价改革的效果和相关因素的作用,可为在迅速变化的经济条件下制定合适的水价政策提供支持。为此,本文建立了能反映水价改革影响方式的可计算一般平衡模型(CGE模型),并通过对不同年份CGE模型在不同设定条件下运行结果的对比分析,来评价水价改革效果及其相关因素的作用。北京市的实例应用说明,不同时期水价改革效果明显不同,水价改革具有促进经济发展的潜力,水价政策要着重提高用水部门节水技术水平和对水价的敏感性。

Water price reform is one of the important means to implement water demand management,and then to deal with the increasingly tense situation of water supply and demand.Understanding the effects of water price reform and its impact factors will help to develop integrated measures in the rapidly changing economic condition.A computable general equilibrium model （CGE model） is proposed to study the way that how water price reform makes effects.The outputs of the CGE models of different years and conditions are analyzed to evaluate the effects of the water price reform and its impact factors.The application of the proposed model to the Beijing City shows that,the effects of water price reform in different periods are significantly different.However,the reform has the potential to promote economic development,so that the policies for water price should focus on improving the water saving technology and the sensitivity affecting the water price.