我国CO_2排放、能源消耗、经济增长和外贸依存度之间的关系——基于ARDL模型的实证研究

A Study on the Relationship of CO_2 Emissions,Energy Consumption,Economic Growth,and Trade Openness in China——Analysis Based on ARDL Model

本文利用我国1971-2008年的样本数据,运用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)对我国的二氧化碳排放、能源消费、人均国民总收入、人均国民总收入的平方和外贸依存度之间的动态关系进行了计量研究。结果表明它们之间存在长期的均衡关系。格兰杰因果检验表明,能源消费对二氧化碳排放同时存在长期和短期的因果关系。ARDL估计结果表明,人均能源消费量对二氧化碳排放量解释力度最大,其次是人均国民总收入和对外贸易,并且推导出了一个持续增长的二氧化碳排放模型,同时给出一些政策建议。

This study attempts to examine empirically dynamic relationships between carbon emissions, energy consumption, income, and trade openness in the case of China using the time series data for the period 1971 -2008 based on the ARDL model. The bounds test results indicate that there exists one form of long-run relationships between the variables. In the form of long-run relationship, carbon emissions are determined by energy consumption, income and foreign trade. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables. The empirical results suggest that energy consumption is the most significant variable in explaining the carbon emissions in China which is followed by income and trade openness. Moreover, there exists a stable carbon emissions function. The results also provide important policy recommendations.