基于事故树法的海上石油国际合作项目政治风险分析

Analysis of the Political Risk of Offshore Oil International Cooperation Project Based on the FTA

随着海上石油勘探开发的日趋兴盛,海上石油国际合作项目面临的政治风险正日趋隐蔽和复杂,使得政治风险的不确定性不断增强,政治风险已经成为了影响项目成功与否的关键因素。本文主要运用事故树法分析海上石油国际合作项目中存在的政治风险,建立海上石油国际合作项目政治风险事故树,分析得出政治风险产生的原因,在此基础上提出了规避政治风险的对策,为我国石油公司在今后开展海上石油国际合作时的政治风险管理提供决策参考。

With the flourishing development of offshore oil exploration and exploitation,the political risk that offshore oil international cooperation project faces is increasingly becoming concealment and complex,causes the uncertainty of political risk grows unceasingly,political risk has become a key factor of project success. This paper analyzes the political risk in offshore oil international cooperation projects with the FTA method,establishes the political risk fault tree of offshore oil international cooperation project,and finds the causes of the political risk. On that basis,it puts forward some countermeasures to avoid political risks,which provide decision reference for China＇s oil companies＇ political risk management in the future offshore oil international cooperation.