基于主成分分析法的中国外贸增长能力综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation of China's Ability of Foreign Trade Growth Based on Principal Component Analysis

本文通过构建外贸增长能力的综合评价体系,评价了中国1991-2008年我国的外贸增长能力。通过主成分分析,得到了4个主成分。通过综合得分分析,得出:我国的外贸增长能力分为两个阶段,以2001年为分界点,2001年以前我国的外贸增长能力在曲折中上升,2001年以后我国的外贸增长能力出于稳步上升的阶段,在一定程度上说明了我国的外贸增长方式是有效的和正面的。

By building a comprehensive evaluation system of China＇s ability of foreign trade growth,we evaluate China＇s foreign trade growth capacity from 1991 to 2008. By principal component analysis,we get four main components. By the analysis of composite scores,obtained： China＇s foreign trade growth capacity is separated in two stages,China＇s foreign trade growth capacity increase in twists and turns before 2001. After 2001,China＇s foreign trade growth capacity increases steadily. All the results shows that China＇s foreign trade growth mode is effective and positive to some extent.