湖北经济发展的周期性及其驱动因素

STUDY ON THE FLUCTUATIONS AND THEIR DRIVING FORCES OF PER CAPITAL GDP IN HUBEI PROVINCE

研究经济发展的周期性及其驱动因素,"淡化"经济周期的剧烈波动,对优化调控经济管理、促进经济稳定增长具有重要意义。采用经验模态分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD)和偏最小二乘回归(Partial Least-squares Regression,PLSR)相结合方法,对1952～2007年湖北人均GDP进行了多尺度分析及不同时间尺度下的驱动因素分析。结果发现:(1)56a来,湖北人均GDP在波动中不断增长,存在准4.7a、准11.2a和准56a3个波动周期和一个先轻微下降后持续递增的趋势项;(2)湖北人均GDP不同周期性波动的共同驱动因子有资本形成总额、原煤产量、水泥产量、进出口总额、旅客周转量,不同因子及其驱动大小分别为准4.7a依次有社会消费品零售总额、居民消费、农林牧渔总产值、钢产量、货物周转量,准11.2a依次有社会消费品零售总额、发电量、农林牧渔总产值、钢产量,准56a依次有居民消费、政府消费、邮电业务总量,趋势项依次有社会消费品零售总额、居民消费、政府消费、发电量、农林牧渔总产值、钢产量、邮电业务总量、货物周转量。湖北及中央政府相关政策制定者应特别关注促进资本积累与形成,有效调控原煤与水泥等主要工业产品产量,制定合理的进出口贸易政策,提高旅客运输效率及运输能力等。

The study of economic periodicities and its driving forces could mitigate strong fluctuation of economic cycle.And it is important for optimizing economic management and promoting steady economic growth.The fluctuation periods per capita GDP in Hubei Province during 1952～2007 were analyzed based on empirical mode decomposition（EMD）method.The main factors which influence the per capita GDP fluctuation in Hubei province were discussed with partial least-squares regression（PLSR）method.The results showed that per capita GDP in Hubei Province kept increasing with fluctuation in the past 56 years.The obvious undulation cycles of per capita GDP in Hubei Province were 4.7,11.2,and 56 years over last 56 years.The common influenced factors affecting correlative coefficients of per capita GDP in Hubei Province are founded at their different timescales.They are gross capital formation,coal production,cement production,total value of exports and imports,total passenger-kilometers.The different factors are total retail sales of consumer goods,household consumption expenditures,gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,steel production,and total freight ton-kilometers at 4.7 years timescale according to the size of their driving forces.There are total retail sales of consumer goods,electricity,gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,and steel production at 11.2 years timescale.There are household consumption expenditures,government consumption expenditure,business volume of postal and telecommunication services at 56 years timescale.There are total retail sales of consumer goods,household consumption expenditures,government consumption expenditure,electricity,gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,steel production,business volume of postal and telecommunication services,and total freight ton-kilometers at residual trend timescale.The findings suggest that policy-makers in Hubei Province and China should attach more importance to boosting the capital accumulation and its formation,administrating effectively coal and cement major industrial products,making reasonable import and export trade strategy,improving the efficiency of passenger transport and its capacity,etc.