一种军事通信网络效能评估专家意见融合方法

A Method for Experts' Opinion Combination of Military Communication Networks Effectiveness Evaluation

为解决军事通信网络效能评估中专家评估冲突意见的融合问题,提出了一种新的融合方法。新方法首先利用多属性群决策层次评估方法对专家的评估意见进行量化处理,得到针对某一指标的专家评判意见的信任度函数。然后利用改进的证据理论合成规则对专家评判意见的信任度函数进行融合。最后,通过算例对文中的方法进行了验证。与利用经典的合成规则融合专家评估意见相比,新方法有效的解决了高冲突意见融合中存在的"一票否决"等现象,并且具有更好的鲁棒性。新方法应用于军事通信网络效能评估中专家评估意见融合时,可以客观地反映专家的评估意见。

A new combination method is introduced for solving the combination problem of experts＇conflict opinions of military communication network effectiveness evaluation in this paper. For the new method, firstly, the quantification of evaluation opinions of experts is made based on multi - attribute group decision - making level evaluation model, then the basic probability distribute functions of each index are calculated based on the experts＂ evaluation opinions. Secondly, the basic probability distribute functions are combined based on the improved D - S model. Finally, a case is analyzed. The results show that the problem such as rejecting by one condition is solved and the new method is more reliable compared to the classic combination rule of D -S model. The opinions of experts can be reflected objectively and impersonally when the new method is used in combining the experts＇opinions in the evaluation of military communication networks effectiveness.