我国城乡居民消费趋势的贝叶斯分析

Bayesian analysis on consume trend of urban and rural residents in China

从经济学中经典消费理论出发,以贝叶斯估计方法为基础,结合我国城乡居民消费和收入等相关经济序列数据,确定了我国自1978年以来城、乡居民的消费函数模型,得到了模型参数的分位数估计和贝叶斯估计。分别计算出我国城、乡居民的基本消费支出,分析消费的发展趋势,给出了促进经济增长,扩大消费需求的一些政策性建议。

Based on the classical consumption theory and the Bayesian estimation,we build a consumption function model of urban and rural residents in china from 1978,get both the parameter estimation and Bayesian estimation by using the economy data of consumption and income.The trend of basic consumption is calculated,and some policy suggestions are put forwarded for improve the economy development.