湖南省农村居民消费结构的实证分析——基于ELES模型

Empirical Analysis on Consumption Structure of Rural Residents in Hunan Province:Based on ELES Model

本文首先利用恩格尔系数和消费支出构成对湖南农村居民消费现状进行了分析,结果表明湖南农村居民目前还处于温饱阶段,不过已逐渐开始向小康阶段过渡;然后借助1995—2007年《中国统计年鉴》和《湖南统计年鉴》中的湖南农村居民人均纯收入,以及食品、衣着、居住、家庭设备用品及服务、交通通信、教育文化娱乐服务、医疗保健以及杂项商品与服务八类人均全年消费支出数据,建立了扩展的消费支出系统(ELES模型),并利用该模型对湖南农村居民年均基本消费支出水平、边际消费倾向和需求收入弹性进行分析。结果表明,湖南农村居民消费结构正处于从生存型向发展型和享受型过渡的阶段。

According to the Engel coefficient and the comparison of consumption expenditure in 1995 and 2007,this paper firstly makes an analysis on the status quo of rural residents＇ consumption in Hunan,and the results show that rural residents in Hunan are still in the stage of dressing warmly and eating their fill,but they have been transiting to the well-off stage gradually,And using the data about per capita net income,and the per capita annual consumption expenditure including food,clothing,housing,household equipment and services,transportation and communication,education,cultural and recreational service,health care and miscellaneous good and service in,from 1995 to 2007,it extablishes the extended linear expenditure system（ELES model） to analyze the average level of basic consumption expenditure,the marginal propensity to consume and income elasticity of demand.The conclusion is that the consumption structure of rural residents in Hunan is developing from the survival type to the developmental and comfortable type.